The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has projected a record global cereal production of 2,911 million tonnes in 2025, marking a 2.1% increase compared to 2024 levels. The forecast was released on Friday in the FAO’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, highlighting a notable recovery in global agricultural output following previous fluctuations.
According to the FAO, the anticipated growth in cereal production is driven by favorable weather conditions, improved yields, and expanded planting in key producing regions. The 2025 forecast includes gains across major cereal categories, such as wheat, maize, and barley, contributing to the overall production surge. This increase comes amid rising global demand, with world cereal utilization projected to reach 2,898 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing season, a 0.8% rise from the previous year.
Within this total utilization, global food consumption of cereals is expected to grow by 0.9%, reflecting both population growth and dietary trends in several regions. Additionally, feed use of cereals is forecast to expand by 0.5%, indicating steady demand from the livestock sector despite fluctuating market conditions in recent years.
The FAO report also indicates that cereal production is likely to exceed utilization in 2025/26, resulting in an expansion of world cereal stocks by 1.0% to 873.6 million tonnes. This partial recovery follows a contraction in global reserves during the previous year. The global cereal stock-to-use ratio, a key measure of supply stability, is projected to remain broadly stable at 29.8%, suggesting a balanced market outlook and reduced risk of volatility.
In terms of global trade, the FAO forecasts a rebound in cereal shipments, with total trade expected to rise by 1.9% to 487.1 million tonnes in 2025/26. Wheat trade is anticipated to lead this recovery with a 3.8% growth, while rice trade may experience a slight contraction of 0.7%. The forecast reflects ongoing adjustments in global supply chains, influenced by shifting demand patterns, currency fluctuations, and evolving trade policies.
The FAO’s latest projections offer a cautiously optimistic outlook for global food security, with ample supplies expected to meet rising consumption needs. However, the organization continues to monitor factors such as climate variability, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty, which could influence future production and trade dynamics. – By MENA Newswire News Desk.